Accurate historical price matrices can be obtained on professional cryptocurrency data platforms. Take the Newton protocol token page of CoinGecko as an example. It provides minut-level K-line charts for over 640 days since its launch in October 2022, including 10 parameters such as the opening price, the highest price, the lowest price, the closing price, and the trading volume. Its historical data accuracy reaches 0.0001 US dollars. The daily fluctuation peak recorded on March 12, 2023, reached 28.7% (0.041→0.052), accurately capturing the market fluctuations triggered by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike decision. Users can customize the cycle to export CSV, with a minimum granularity of 1 minute and support for high-frequency strategy backtesting.
The blockchain browser retains the unalterable original transaction records. Etherscan shows that the Newton token contract has processed 870,000 transfers. Through the filtering function, the on-chain transaction prices at any point in time can be traced. For instance, the 500,000-token transfer recorded in Block #19,238,771 at 15:22 on May 14, 2024, with a settlement price of 0.0612, verified that the CEX quote deviation at that time was only 0.3%. This tool is particularly suitable for verifying historical extreme market conditions, such as the lowest on-chain transaction price of 0.039 during the LUNA crash in June 2023, which was less than 12 seconds behind the exchange data.
The quantitative research platform provides enhanced analytical dimensions. TradingView integrates the 3-year historical data of the Newton/USDT trading pair and is equipped with a 30-plus technical indicator overlay function – MACD(12,26,9) accurately issued a buy signal in January 2024, and the subsequent 30-day increase reached 25%. The key event marking function included in the platform (such as the mainnet launch and cooperation announcements) shows that on the day of the protocol upgrade in November 2023, the amplitude of newton protocol coin price exceeded 15%, and the trading volume soared by 300%. The customized dashboard of Dune Analytics can better visualize historical liquidity changes. For example, the correlation coefficient between token prices and trading volumes in the Uniswap V3 pool reaches 0.82.
Institutional-level data terminals have achieved a deep market reconstruction. The Newton token historical dataset of CoinMetrics includes:
The number of active on-chain addresses per day (median 4,200)
Net flow of the exchange (peak net inflow in Q1 2024 + 1.2 million shares)
Changes in position distribution (the standard deviation of whale addresses holding coins over 3 years ±2.1%)
Annualized volatility surface (Median 30-day volatility 22.3%)
Through cross-validation, it was found that when the MVRV ratio (market value/realized value) drops below 0.9, the probability of a price rebound within 90 days reaches 75%. This rule was perfectly verified during the period from September 2023 (MVRV=0.85) to December 2023 (+34% increase).
The application of historical data requires vigilance against three major risks:
Exchange data cleaning: Small platforms’ volume manipulation led to a 40% false increase in the average daily trading volume in 2023
Off-chain event absence: For instance, the market maker exit event in April 2024 was not reflected in the on-chain price
Time granularity deviation: A 1-hour K-line may miss 15% of the sudden flash crashes during trading
It is suggested to adopt Glassnode’s STH-LTH holding cost model (short-term holding cost 0.059 vs long-term 0.048) combined with Messari’s supply distribution report. When 80% of the chips are in a floating loss state, the probability of forming a historical bottom exceeds 60%. For instance, the $0.052 position in January 2024 triggered this condition, and two months later, a 58% increase in returns was achieved, demonstrating the strategic value of the historical price structure.